From ‘Avatar’ to ‘The Hurt Locker’: HollywoodChicago.com Picks the 2010 Oscar Winners

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mo'Nique in Precious
Mo’Nique in Precious
Photo credit: Lionsgate

Penelope Cruz, “Nine
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Who would have guessed just a few years ago that Penelope Cruz would be the veteran in this category with her third nomination in just a few years for her excellent work in “Nine”? Brian thinks that the most snubbed Supporting Actress is Cruz’s co-star in “Nine,” the great Marion Cotillard, who could have been nominated for either Rob Marshall’s film or her even better work in “Public Enemies”. Both performances are better than the one for which she won in “La Vie en Rose”.

As for who will win, it’s another crystal clear, unanimous pick with the entire staff going with the safe choice of Mo’Nique for “Precious”. That’s four for four with arguably the most predictable acting winners in Oscar history. Both Matt and Pat think Mo’Nique deserves the trophy while Brian thinks her mommy dearest act goes a bit too far in the final reel and would award Anna Kendrick for taking a part that could have come off as a cool cliche and doing so much with it.

Pat and Matt agree again on who got snubbed - arguably the best actress alive without an Oscar - Julianne Moore for her work in “A Single Man”. As Matt says, she “delivered the very definition of stellar supporting work as Firth’s boozy former lover” and Pat praises her for taking “a smaller, less defined portrayal and [making] it her own.” Brian would have certainly gotten behind that choice as well.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Hurt Locker
The Hurt Locker
Photo credit: Summit Entertainment

Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

The glass ceiling of one of the Academy Award categories never won by a woman will finally shatter when Kathryn Bigelow takes home the trophy for her amazing, tension-filled work on “The Hurt Locker,” yet another category agreed upon by all three critics, even Matt who’s predicting a split between Picture and Director.

As Matt notes, “Even Cameron hopes Bigelow will prevail in this category. Her film got closer than any previous Iraq war drama to placing the viewer within the psyche of the American soldier. Though it will be wonderful to see Bigelow be the first woman in history to claim the Best Director prize, it will be another breakthrough the day a female director finally wins for her portrait of a woman’s inner life.”

Brian loves that a woman will finally get an Oscar for Best Director - and especially the woman behind “Point Break,” “Near Dark,” and “Strange Days” - but hopes the gender story doesn’t overshadow the fact that she absolutely deserves it no matter her sex. “The Hurt Locker” was the best directed film of the year, period. It just happened to be made by a woman.

There’s agreement in the HollywoodChicago.com office yet again about who got screwed in this category with Matt and Patrick picking the same talented man. We’ll let Matt say it - “No filmmaker is more in touch with his inner child than Spike Jonze, and his mind-boggling, audacious approach to adapting Maurice Sendak’s book made for one of the year’s most magical and rewarding moviegoing experiences.”

Brian wishes that the Academy had gone out on a limb and recognized one of the most deliberate, talented filmmakers alive - Michael Haneke and his remarkable work on “The White Ribbon”.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Up in the Air
Up in the Air
Photo credit: Paramount

“District 9” by Neill Blomkamp by Terri Tatchell
“An Education” by Nick Hornby
“In the Loop” by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” by Geoffrey Fletcher
“Up in the Air” by Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner

Brian thinks nearly every Oscar pool is going to be won in the screenplay categories as they’re the most, no pun intended, up in the air.

As for what will win, Brian and Matt think “Up in the Air” has the narrow edge, largely due to having won the most precursor awards and because it’s likely to be the only trophy it takes home. As Matt says, “Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s script could not have been more timely, considering the current economic climate, and it brought Clooney his most haunting and resonant performance to date.”

Pat is willing to go out on a limb and predict something that Brian thinks is definitely a possibility in that the emotional pull of “Precious” will lead to a somewhat surprising screenplay win.

Mr. McDonald and Mr. Fagerholm think “In the Loop” was the best adapted script of the year while Brian loved the snappy banter and brilliant subtlety of what Nick Hornby did with “An Education”.

As for what should have been nominated, Tallerico and McDonald point to “Where the Wild Things Are” once again with Pat saying, “Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers took a classic and made another classic, no mean feat.” Fagerholm looks to “A Single Man” - “Let’s also not forget Tom Ford and David Scearce’s masterful adaptation of Christopher Isherwood’s novel, which included some of the year’s most beautifully written sequences, often in the form of heightened moments observed by a protagonist intent on drinking in every last drop of life.”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inglourious Basterds
Inglourious Basterds
Photo credit: The Weinstein Company

“The Hurt Locker” by Mark Boal
“Inglourious Basterds” by Quentin Tarantino
“The Messenger” by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
“A Serious Man” by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Up” by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter & Thomas McCarthy

Brian thinks this is the toughest category of the night. The Coens and “The Messenger” are out of the running but none of the other three would be a surprise. If “The Hurt Locker” sweeps, it’s the easy pick, but “Inglourious Basterds” clearly has a lot of fans as well. If you think “THL” is going to win Best Picture, you might want to know that it’s been five years since a film won that prize and did NOT take home screenplay. “Sideways” stole it from “Million Dollar Baby” - clearly a beloved, critical choice, much like “Basterds”. Brian is going with Tarantino, but just barely, and mostly because he thinks “IB” deserves the win as well.

Patrick goes with “The Hurt Locker” train leading to a screenplay win although he wishes “Basterds” will take it and that his favorite film of 2009, “(Untitled)” had at least been nominated.

Finally, Matt agrees that “Inglourious Basterds” will win it all although he’s rooting for “THL”. Clearly, the two are neck and neck (which could even cause a split and allow “Up” to sneak in). As for snubs, he notes that, “It’s a shame that the wonderfully cathartic rom-com “(500) Days of Summer” was completely shut out this year. The script by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber was both marvelously inventive and remarkably insightful, proving that not every feel-good Fox Searchlight charmer needs a straightforward happy ending.

As for snubs, Brian thinks they got this category remarkably right - moreso than any this year - but Haneke’s “The White Ribbon” would have been a wonderful inclusion if they could have picked six.

What did we get right? What did we get wrong? Tell us what you think will win, should win, and should have been nominated in the space below.

HollywoodChicago.com content director Brian Tallerico

By BRIAN TALLERICO
Content Director
HollywoodChicago.com
brian@hollywoodchicago.com

HollywoodChicago.com staff writer Matt Fagerholm

By MATT FAGERHOLM
Staff Writer
HollywoodChicago.com
matt@hollywoodchicago.com

HollywoodChicago.com staff writer Patrick McDonald

By PATRICK MCDONALD
Staff Writer
HollywoodChicago.com
pat@hollywoodchicago.com

Will's picture

Agreement by don't count out 'Basterds'

I agree with all your choices, but I wouldn’t count Inglourious Basterds out of Best Picture just yet…

The preferential voting system means that the votes from the movie that earns the least 1st votes will have its 2nd place vote redistributed to the other films (and so on).

If you look at the types of films that are likely to come last… e.g. ‘An Education’ or ‘A Serious Man’ - these are very ‘actor oriented’ pictures, and those Academy members who went out on a limb to choose those for 1st place, are likely to have picked a film where Actors are key. That would mean Inglourious Basterds rather than Hurt Locker (which seem to me to be more about ‘the message’ than ‘the acting’), and certainly more than Avatar (which is all about the spectacle). And don’t discount those 22% of Academy members who are Actors… Tarantino is a real Actors’ favorite.

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