Feature: ‘Inception,’ ‘The King’s Speech’ Lead Final 2011 Oscar Nominee Predictions

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Natalie Portman
Photo credit: Fox Searchlight

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Locks: There is simply no way that Annette Bening and Natalie Portman don’t get in here, although I expect the beloved Bening to miss out on winning the actual award yet again. Bening’s status as one of our best actresses without an Oscar grows. Maybe next time.

Likely: Since voters first saw it almost a year ago at Sundance 2010, I’ve been hearing that Jennifer Lawrence should be considered a lock. This category has gotten so loopy, that I’m not 100% sure she’s still one, but she’s definitely likely.

Contenders: Three candidates, two spots. Despite some serious category confusion, the recent placement of Hailee Steinfeld in lead actress by BAFTA (which has a common voting body with the Academy) leads me to believe that she’s getting in here. If she wasn’t in play, it would be Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams (for “Blue Valentine”) taking those final two spots and this would be a pretty clear 5-by-5. That could easily still happen. If Steinfeld does get in, either Kidman or Williams have to go and neither would surprise me. For some reason, I’m thinking both “Blue Valentine” stars are getting screwed under the “they’ll have another chance soon” reasoning. What a crock.

Personal Pleas: If Steinfeld falls into the gap of category confusion and misses out for Williams, then this category could match up evenly with my personal top five, which is too scary to actually happen. Isn’t it?

Colin Firth
Photo credit: The Weinstein Company

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”

Locks: In one of the more unusual categories of the day, there’s really only one — Colin Firth is getting in and he’s winning. There may be only one lock but there are a number of…

Likely: The overall support for “The Social Network” and “True Grit” should make their stars, Jesse Eisenberg and Jeff Bridges, safe bets for a nod. While I think a number of people have yet to watch their “127 Hours” screeners (more on that later), I think they could vote for James Franco based purely on the buzz for his tour-de-force performance. Remember, there’s no audit to make sure the voters have actually seen what they’re voting for and Franco is likable enough to get votes from members who haven’t even gotten to see the film just based on buzz. He’s likely.

Contenders: Here we have a case of “one spot, two contenders.” Do the Academy go old school and give a living legend one more nomination with Robert Duvall or open the door to the new school with the great Ryan Gosling in “Blue Valentine”? When in doubt, guess old school with the Academy.

Personal Pleas: Gosling deserves consideration for the win, much less a nomination. And it’s too bad no one is talking about either Leonardo DiCaprio performance here. In many lesser years, he would have gotten in. It shows how much is dependent on release date that DiCaprio was nominated for “Blood Diamond,” but almost certainly won’t be for superior work in “Shutter Island” and “Inception.”

David Fincher
Photo credit: Sony

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Locks/Likely/Contenders: There has rarely been a race this close among six contenders — the five listed above and Joel and Ethan Coen for “True Grit.” The only guarantee is that Fincher is in, but I believe the other four could be vulnerable or could be likely or could even be locks depending on how you look at it. Is “Black Swan” too weird to get Aronofsky in or is he overdue? Could Nolan get snubbed a third time (after “Memento” and “The Dark Knight” DGA nods couldn’t translate to Oscar) or will he finally be recognized? Isn’t it logical to leave the Brit (Hooper) out? Critically, Russell’s film is the least-beloved here, so isn’t he the obvious choice? Last year, the Directors Guild of America matched up five for five and I think it’s going to happen again, leaving the Coens as the headline for snub stories everywhere. Although nothing but Fincher would surprise me here.

Personal Pleas: As much as I love the “changing of the guard” and seeing some of the visionary directors of the ’90s and ’00s like Aronofsky, Fincher, and Nolan as Academy Award nominees, I have to throwback to two of the best that ever lived for consideration — Roman Polanski and Martin Scorsese. If “The Ghost Writer” and “Shutter Island” were 4th quarter releases instead of early in the year, they would be considered legitimate spoilers for this 6-man party as they should be.

The Social Network
Photo credit: Sony

BEST PICTURE
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”

Locks: The big six nominees that I’ve already mentioned repeatedly are all locks. There’s just no way that “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Social Network,” and “True Grit” don’t get in here. And what a fascinating race this would be if it were only two years ago and one of these movies wasn’t going to be a Best Picture nominee.

Likely: Which leaves four spots. The Golden Globe love for “The Kids Are All Right” hints at support there and I’d say it’s likely. As is “Toy Story 3,” a film with equal critical acclaim and more commercial love than last year’s nominated “Up.”

Contenders: We’re down to two spots with three viable contenders — “127 Hours,” “The Town,” and “Winter’s Bone.” They’re so evenly matched that one has to factor in elements as silly as the fact that squeamishness over the content of the “arm-cutting movie” could factor in. If it’s down to merely a few votes, I’m thinking that the snub is going to be the screener furthest from the bottom of the to-watch pile of Academy members and I can guarantee you there are some folks who haven’t had the stomach for the saga of Aron Ralston.

Personal Pleas: For the first time in many, many years, it seems almost impossible that my personal top three won’t be nominated, so I can’t really complain. Having said that, a few of these choices are less inspired and less accomplished than “Shutter Island,” “The Ghost Writer,” or “Blue Valentine.” None of those have a chance in hell of taking a spot. But this really wouldn’t be a bad top ten regardless of if “127 Hours” gets in or not. There’s no “The Reader” or “The Blind Side” in the bunch. As far as films with a reasonable, outside possibility for a plea — “Rabbit Hole” would be a fun surprise on nomination morning. As would the heavily-pushed “How to Train Your Dragon.” But don’t count on either.

Move on to page three for the exciting technical categories…