TV Feature: 2011 Fall Network TV Schedule Predictions

Printer-friendly versionE-mail page to friendPDF version

FOX (May 16th, 2011)

The Chicago Code Photo credit: FOX

Update (May 11, 2011): FOX has canceled all of their bubble programs, including “The Chicago Code”

Bubble Shows: “Breaking In,” “The Chicago Code,” “Human Target,” & “Lie to Me”

FOX is such an unusual case because they have significantly fewer hours to fill than their competition. They’re not touching Sunday nights, having already renewed that block of animation, and they won’t change Saturday nights. Add this to the fact that they only program two hours a night, so that means they really only have TEN HOURS to play with every week.

Start doing the math. “Fringe,” “Bones,” “Glee,” and “Raising Hope” have already been renewed. That leaves us with 6.5 hours. Simon Cowell’s “The X Factor” is sure to take up at least two hours and possibly as many as four. (For the sake of argument, I think they’re going to start with two.) Even though it’s Cowell, you’d hate to commit four hours to something before you know it works. So, we’re down to 4.5 hours. They’ve already announced Steven Spielberg’s new sci-fi program “Terra Nova” — 3.5 hours left. How many will be new shows? They couldn’t possibly renew all of their bubble programs — there aren’t enough hours on the network.

What this means is that “Traffic Light” is certainly gone to red. Forget about it. It also makes “Breaking In” unlikely, although they may end up partnering it with “Raising Hope” on Tuesday nights, depending on the quality of what could possibly replace it.

What about the dramas? At MOST, they’ll save one of the three bubble shows — “The Chicago Code,” “Human Target,” “Lie to Me.” I can’t see them bringing back the latter two since it seems clear now they will never be more than a modest hit. “Chicago Code” looked like it still could become a bigger success but then last Monday had to hit and the program fell to a series-low number in the key demo that makes it unlikely to save. I wish we knew when they made the decision. Just because they announce on the 16th doesn’t mean that they wait till the 15th to decide. If they came to a conclusion on “The Chicago Code” before May, I think it’s on the fall schedule. But those recent numbers are brutal. It’s as 50/50 as I’ve ever seen in this prediction game. Flip a coin.

Sundays: Animation
Mondays: The Chicago Code, House
Tuesdays: Glee, Raising Hope, NEW COMEDY
Wednesdays: X Factor, Terra Nova
Thursdays: X Factor, NEW DRAMA
Fridays: Bones, Fringe
Saturdays: America’s Most Wanted, Cops