Oscar Week: HollywoodChicago.com 2023 Academy Award Predictions

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CHICAGO – We have arrived. Welcome to the annual Oscar Predictions on HollywoodChicago.com for 2023 (the 95th Academy Awards). The film/entertainment contributors of HC – Patrick McDonald and Spike Walters – are joined by filmmaker treasure Michael Glover Smith (“Relative”) and film critic Jeffrey L. York of “The Establishing Shot.”



Michael Glover Smith is a locally-based Chicago filmmaker. “Relative” is his 2022 fourth feature film (after “Cool Apocalypse,” “Mercury in Retrograde” and “Rendezvous in Chicago”) and is still doing business in theaters across the country. Jeffrey L. York is a film writer/critic and artist whose specialty is the film and celebrity caricature. Currently he is selling downloads from his original art representing the 2023 Oscar nominees. Click JEFF YORK for details.

The PREDICTORS! The Oscars are on ABC-TV, March 12th, 2023
Photo credit: File Photo

TEN films of 2023 – “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “Women Talking” – will vie for the Best Picture Award. The HC.com predictors will opine on six categories … BEST Picture, Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress and Director. As in previous years, the predictions are broken down into thoughts on who WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN and SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED (for one last gasp of WTF?). Separately, Patrick, Spike, Jeffrey and Michael will comment on a WILD CARD guess in four other categories, and the latest odds on the rest of the field – provided by www.BetOnline.ag – will be highlighted to fill out your ballot for Oscar Night. Have a great Oscar weekend!

PREDICTOR GUIDE: Patrick McDonald = (PM), Spike Walters = (SW), Jeffrey L. York = (JLY) and Michael Glover Smith = (MGS).

BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES: “All Quiet on the Western Front” … “Avatar: The Way of Water” … “The Banshees of Inisherin” … “Elvis” … “Everything Everywhere All at Once” … “The Fabelmans” … ”Tár” … Top Gun: Maverick” … “Triangle of Sadness” … “Women Talking”


Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (MGS, JLY, PM, SW)

Should Win: “The Bashees of Inisherin” (JLY), “Top Gun: Maverick” (SW), “Tár” (PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: “Decision to Leave” (MGS), “Close” (JLY), “The Menu” (SW), “RRR” (PM)

Everything Everywhere All at Once
Photo credit: A24

Everybody Everypick All at Once …

MGS: There’s probably less suspense around what WILL WIN the top award at this year’s Oscars than there has been in years: among the nominees, some made a killing at the box office (“Top Gun: Maverick,” “Avatar: The Way of Water”) while others were praised to the rafters by critics (“The Fabelmans, “Tár”) but only “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had an extremely high batting average across both of those categories. It also helps that it swept all of the other awards this season. What SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED is Park Chan-wook’s “Decision to Leave,” a delirious thriller crossed with a perverse love story that featured the richest mise-en-scene of any film I saw last year.

JLY: This is seemingly the easiest year to predict Best Picture in years with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (EEAAO) dominating the critics’ choices, the guilds, and the major awards. (BAFTA was the only major trophy it missed.) It also helps that it was a box office hit, comes chock full of diversity, and is an upbeat film. A few months back, “The Banshees of Inisherin” seemed like a real contender, but its hopes faded with each awards show loss … I’m sure the Academy will also prefer hot dog fingers over severed ones. If there’s any spoiler it might be “All Quiet on the Western Front” as its nine nominations attest to its popularity, but my prediction is that EEAAO will easily prevail.

PM: One of the truly irritating things when it comes to Oscar in the digital age is that “everything” seems picked before the picks are announced, and surprises are rare. Thus I jump onto the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” bandwagon with the rest of internets but with protest … at its core, in my opinion, the moral fiber of the story is weak. I much preferred the much gutsier “Tár” as Best Picture worthy. And as far as WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED, it’s easily “RRR,” the film from India that had really had everything that makes a movie great, including a politically correct battle against colonialism.

SW: It’s hard to argue with the momentum that “Everything Everywhere All At Once” has built up until now. It’s just the sort of out there shiny new thing that the Academy is drawn to to prove that it’s with the times. However “Top Gun: Maverick” deserves the title of Best Picture for being the best kind of popcorn movie, and giving sequels a good name for a change. It does its job and does it better than I thought possible, and it works better than any other so called nostalgia soaked “legacy sequel” and for audiences who may have hazy to no recollection of the original. One film that I think should have gotten more attention from the Academy is “The Menu.” If we’re going with the skewering the rich motif, “The Menu” accomplished its task with an incisive wit and imagery that stuck with me for weeks.

BEST ACTRESS

NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett, “Tár” … Ana de Armas, ‘Blonde” … Andrea Riseborough,”To Leslie” … Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” … Michelle Yeoh. “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (SW, MGS, JLY, PM)

Should Win: Cate Blanchett (SW, JLY, PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: Florence Pugh “Don’t Worry Darling” (SW), Natalie Boulefeu “A Couple” (MGS), Vicky Krieps “Corsage” (JLY), Aubrey Plaza “Emily the Criminal” (PM)

Michelle Yeoh in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once
Photo credit: A24

Everything Everywhere Michelle Yeoh …

SW: I once thought this was Cate Blanchett’s to lose but now I think Michelle Yeoh will be the one grasping the Oscar on the night. It’s kind of a makeup award for not having nominated her for performances in films like “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” and she acquits herself nicely in adding a lot of nuance to the character at the center of the madcap multiverse … she deserves the recognition. Even though the movie wasn’t well loved, and her contributions were somewhat overshadowed by the considerable behind the scenes drama Florence Pugh in “Don’t Worry, Darling” was just the sort of force of nature performance that turns heads and grabs attention in the best way possible.

MGS: Michelle Yeoh has the moment and likely WILL WIN here but I think critical fave Cate Blanchett still has a fighting chance for her performance as the eponymous anti-heroine in “Tár.” Who SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED is Nathalie Boutefeu for playing Sophia Tolstoy (long-suffering wife of Count Leo) in Frederick Wiseman’s “A Couple.” As the only performer in the movie, Boutefeu convincingly carries the day in what amounts to an extended 64-minute soliloquy.

JLY: Blanchett gives a towering performance in “Tár,” but Yeoh is terrific too in “Everywhere … “ Yeoh also wins points for not having ever been nominated before, thriving in her 60s, and potentially being the first actress of Asian heritage to win this category. Indeed, she’s sort of (ahem) everything, everywhere, all at once here, isn’t she? It’s hers to lose.

PM: Michelle Yeoh makes perfect sense, all the stars are aligned, but I still think Cate Blanchett was unforgettable in “Tár,” arguably her best performance in a stellar career. But Yeoh is the odds on favorite and deserves the honor, having handled that crazy loop-the-loop of a film. Why no love for Aubrey Plaza for “Emily the Criminal”? She did so much within a very conflicted and interesting character.

BEST ACTOR

NOMINEES: Austin Butler, “Elvis” … Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” … Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” … Bill Nighy, “Living” … Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”

Will Win: Brendan Frasier (PM, SW, MGS), Austin Bulter (JLY)

Should Win: Colin Farrell (PM, SW, JLY)

Should Have Been Nominated: Jeremy Pope “The Inspection” (PM), Ralph Fiennes “The Menu” (SW), Jack Lowden “Benediction” (MGS), Mark Rylance “The Outfit” (JLY)

Brendan Fraser in ‘The Whale’
Photo credit: A24

He who gets slapped, er, honored …

PM: Austin Butler started out strong after winning the Golden Globe for “Elvis,” but the momentum died like E taking a bathroom break. Brendan Frasier just keeps turning up like Captain Ahab’s nemesis and will ride the latest wave into Oscar gold … the money award, considering the box office he’s garnered for the industry. Colin Farrell had the most difficult assignment … a guy both nice and boringly dumb in “Banshees” … and pulled it off with aplomb. And the indie film “The Inspection” was criminally overlooked as Jeremy Pope ripped his heart out to portray a nothing-to-lose Marine.

SW: Hollywood loves a comeback story and Brendan Frasier’s fat suit appears headed for Oscar Gold. While I agree that Frasier gave that character the sort of soul necessary to make the story work, it’s really just the sort of gimmicky “Oscar Bait” performance that probably won’t age well. As much as it surprises me to say it, Colin Farrell was a revelation, at least to me, in “The Banshees of Inishirin.” He was charming, nuanced, and funny. Farrell created the kind of character I wanted to spend a few hours with learning what made him tick. Not to beat a dead horse here, but Ralph Fiennes gave one of his best performances in a career full of them in “The Menu” as a celebrated chef who comes to the realization that his so-called art has added up to nothing.

MGS: Brendan Fraser WILL WIN in this category for “The Whale” simply because he has built up too much goodwill in the industry over the past few decades, and even those who found the movie objectionable can’t seem to resist the actor’s feel-good comeback story. Jack Lowden SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED for his soulful performance as the tortured anti-war poet Siegfried Sassoon in Terence Davies’ sublime “Benediction.”

JLY: This is the toughest category to call, and three actors have a real shot. Farrell, with the subtlest work of the trio of frontrunners, has faded in the past weeks. Now, it’s down to the veteran Fraser vs. the newbie Butler. Fraser’s comeback helps him, but the Academy loves it when actors play legendary stars (Essaying Ray Charles, Edith Piaf, and Judy Garland won Oscars for Jamie Foxx, Marion Cotillard, and Renee Zellweger, respectively, just to name a few.) Therefore, I give the slightest of edges to Butler who’ll give his acceptance speech still sounding like Elvis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” … Hong Chau, “The Whale” … Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” … Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” … Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis (JLY, PM, MGS), Angela Bassett (SW)

Should Win: Curtis (JLY), Kerry Condon (PM), Bassett (SW)

Should Have Been Nominated: Janelle Monae “Glass Onion” (JLY, SW), Greta Gerwig “White Noise,” (PM), Kristen Stewart “Crimes of the Future” (MGS)

Jamie Lee Curtis in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’
Photo credit: A24

The Laurie Strode Road …

JLY: A great group of actresses comes down to three … Bassett, Condon, and Curtis. It'll likely be close, but I think Curtis has the advantage. She's a legend, is beloved, and the self-described "Nepo Baby" gave a varied and complicated performance in “Everything Everywhere …,” alternating between farce, pathos, and chop-socky action. She also dominated the SAG Awards with her win there, as well as her charming introduction to the show, and all her cheerleading for her movie throughout the presentation. What's not to love about her? And since the actors' branch is the largest win in the Academy, the SAG precursor is quite meaningful.

PM: When I was counting down the top categories of the 2023 Oscar nominees during a radio appearance three weeks ago, my money was on Bassett. Then the SAG Award win came along, coupled with Jamie Lee doing all kind of appearances at the end of the Oscar voting. That one-two combo will get Curtis the gold, and why not? She’s had a long and fruitful career, and never gave herself up to the plasticizing of her aging process. Kerry Condon was better, but it’s JLC’s turn. And I know many don’t like her, but I dug Greta Gerwig as the scattered spouse in “White Noise.”

SW: This is a bit of a tossup. There’s a prevailing sense that the rising tide of “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” will lead Hollywood lifer Jamie Lee Curtis to Oscar glory. And while she’s given plenty of great performances over the years, this struck me as one of those “the nomination is your reward” kind of roles. I think Angela Bassett will take home the trophy for a role that, despite being in a Marvel movie (or maybe because of it), will make the Academy branch out for the kinds of roles they consider … while at the same AB did more narrative heavy lifting than Curtis. Janelle Monae should have gotten some recognition for her dual role in the utterly delightful “Knives Out” sequel “Glass Onion.”

MGS: Angela Bassett was considered a lock in this category right up until the SAG awards, when Jamie Lee Curtis was a surprise winner. The smart money is now on Curtis who, if she wins, will be a textbook case of the phenomenon of "a rising tide lifts all boats." Kristen Stewart SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED for her very funny performance as a weaselly bureaucrat in David Cronenberg's “Crimes of the Future.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES: Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin" … Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway” … Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans"… Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin" … Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (MGS, JLY, PM, SW)

Should Win: Quan (JLY, PM, SW)

Should Have Been Nominated: Anthony Hopkins “Armageddon Time” (MGS), Roy Kinnear “MEN” (JLY, PM), Brad Pitt “Babylon” (SW)

Ke Quy Quan in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’
Photo credit: A24

A “short round” to a sweep …

MGS: Ke Huy Quan WILL WIN for “Everything Everywhere … “ but Anthony Hopkins SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED for his understated performance as the compassionate patriarch in James Gray's sadly overlooked “Armageddon Time.”

JLY: Quan virtually ran the tables up until BAFTA, but his multi-dimensional performance, incredible comeback, and heartfelt acceptance speeches at every televised award show this season make him a lock. Still, Sylvester Stallone was supposed to be a lock for “Creed” in 2015, but Mark Rylance bested him with “Bridge of Spies,” didn't he? Still, I don't see any upset here. 

PM: Very strong nominees, a case could be made for any of the hopefuls. However, it’s gonna be Ke Huy Quan, evolving from the slightly un-PC “Short Round” child actor role to emerge triumphant in adulthood. Can’t wait for his speech. I’ve got to agree with Jeffrey about Roy Kinnear, he “multi-supported” in “Men,” a film that’s actually one of the most interesting and discussable stories of the year.

SW: “Short Round” has come a long way. From Indiana Jones and “The Goonies,” to swing back to the Oscar stage, Ke Huy Quan provides this year’s most irresistible feel good comeback. He is destined for glory and rightfully so, showing the charm and goodwill onscreen that Steven Spielberg spotted all those years ago. While I have mixed feelings about “Babylon” on the whole, I definitely thought Brad Pitt was one of the best parts of the film and I think he should have been recognized for his thoughtful spin on a flailing movie star.

BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES: Martin McDonagh,  “The Banshees of Inisherin" … Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (AKA The Daniels), “Everything Everywhere All At Once" … Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans" … Todd Field, “Tár" … Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness”

Will Win: The Daniels (MGS, JLY, PM), Steven Spielberg (SW)

Should Win: Martin McDonagh (SW, JLY), Todd Fields (PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: Joseph Kosinski “Top Gun: Maverick” (SW), Claire Denis “Both Sides of the Blade/Stars at Noon” (MGS), Sarah Polley “Women Talking” (JLY), Brett Morgen “Moonage Daydream” (PM)

Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert on Set for ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’
Photo credit: A24

Spike has a soft spot for Steven …

SW: I know that all signs point to “The Daniels” after their DGA win. But I think the Academy’s sentimental side will win out here, and Spielberg takes home his third Best Director Oscar for his most personal project to date. Honestly though, I think Martin McDonagh deserves the award since his film “The Banshees of Inisherin” was the only one of the five nominees I would happily watch again. And where’s the love for Joseph Kosinski of “Top Gun: Maverick,” who made a movie that nearly single handedly reminded audiences why we like to go to the movies in a theater.

MGS: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert WILL WIN for the tsunami that is “Everything Everywhere …, “ although Steven Spielberg remains a dark horse for his deeply personal “The Fabelmans.” French master Claire Denis SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED for having a banner year with two fine movies: the Juliette Binoche-starring infidelity drama “Both Sides of the Blade” and the romance-set-against-the-backdrop-of-international-intrigue thriller “Stars at Noon.”

JLY: More often than not, the directing Oscar goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture, especially if the film in the lead is one that the Academy likes a lot. Clearly, they adore “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and its gonzo direction is visible even to the novice. McDonagh’s slow build from comedy to tragedy in “The Banshees of Inisherin” is more complex, and Spielberg might get some sentimental votes for “The Fabelmans,” but not enough to usurp The Daniels. 

PM: Gotta love The Daniels just for sheer audacity in form, and I like their chance for Oscar gold. In the shouldas, one more time to praise “Tár” and Todd Field. Where many saw tedium I enjoyed the way the story unfolded under his baton. And to end this part of the article, a shout-out to my favorite designer film, the outrageous and magnificent David Bowie doc “Moonage Daydream,” directed by Brett Morgen.

Go to PAGE TWO for the Predictor Crew’s WILD CARDS … categories near and dear for them to ponder, PLUS the odds for the rest of the categories. It’s Oscar weekend!