Film Feature: Predictions For the 2013 Oscar Nominations

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CHICAGO – If everything goes as expected, fans of “Lincoln,” “Les Misérables,” and “Zero Dark Thirty” will be very happy on Thursday morning, as those three films will certainly be among the most nominated for this year’s Academy Awards. After that, the certainty ends.

Lincoln Photo credit: DreamWorks

More so than most years, there’s a sense that things could be a little haphazard this year. How will “Django Unchained” play? What did Academy members think of “The Master”? Can smaller films like “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Moonrise Kingdom” from earlier in the year still be remembered? And what of “Life of Pi,” a film that has divided some audiences but seems to be playing well with voters? Every category has 3-4 locks but the “fun” nominees are going to be the remaining 1-2. Almost nothing would surprise me on Thursday morning. Denis Lavant for “Holy Motors” or Jean-Louis Trintignant for “Amour”? Not predicting it but wouldn’t be surprised. Jason Clarke for “Zero Dark Thirty” or Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained”? Couldn’t make my final five but I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s going to be a fun morning. Let’s dive right in.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
It’s always funny to intro a piece about the year’s unpredictability and then lead into arguably the most predictable category. There are three locks here — “Argo,” “Lincoln,” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” leaving two open spots for four contenders — “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Les Misérables,” “Life of Pi,” and “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” I think that Academy voters will see “Pi” as more of a directorial/visual accomplishment and musicals are often not rewarded for their screenwriting. So they’ll go with the unique story of a father-daughter relationship on the edge of the country and the most heartfelt tale of complex adolescence in years.

“Argo” by Chris Terrio
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
“Lincoln” by Tony Kushner, John Logan, & Paul Webb
“The Perks of Being a Wallflower” by Stephen Chbosky
“Silver Linings Playbook” by David O. Russell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal’s exhaustively researched script for “Zero Dark Thirty” seems a lock and then…well…nothing would surprise me. I think voters are likely to see “Moonrise Kingdom” as a writing achievement and nominate Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola thusly and it’s hard to deny the writing power of Quentin Tarantino, almost certain to get in for “Django Unchained.” The final two spots go to “Amour,” “Flight,” “Looper”, or “The Master.” Throw a dart and pick two. Despite a Writers Guild nod, I think “Flight” is in the most trouble and, as much as it pains me to say it, I think Rian Johnson will be left without an invite to the party.

“Amour” by Michael Haneke
“Django Unchained” by Quentin Tarantino
“The Master” by Paul Thomas Anderson
“Moonrise Kingdom” by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
“Zero Dark Thirty” by Mark Boal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The thinnest this category has been in years leaves room for some major upsets and shocking nominations. Some are thinking the Academy goes with Nicole Kidman’s work in “The Paperboy” but the overall film was disliked enough to make that unlikely. Films much-more-widely admired like “Looper” or “Skyfall” could produce a surprising choice — Emily Blunt or Judi Dench, respectively, but I don’t see voters seeing enough meat there. The best way to fill a weak supporting actress crop is with performances that are more accurately leading turns like Ann Dowd in “Compliance” and Helen Hunt in “The Sessions.” That leaves three spots for Amy Adams, Sally Field, and, really, the only nominee that matters since she is arguably the most locked eventual winner in years, Anne Hathaway.

Amy Adams, “The Master”
Ann Dowd, “Compliance”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Just as it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint an eventual winner here (more than any other major category), the list of potential nominees is long. Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Tommy Lee Jones are the locks but a half dozen guys fight for those final two spots. Any two from this list wouldn’t surprise me — Alan Arkin, Jason Clarke, Leonardo DiCaprio, Samuel L. Jackson, Matthew McConaughey, and Christoph Waltz. I’d love to see McConaughey sneak in but I don’t see as much widespread support as for “Django.” It’s fascinating that some are predicting two nods for “Unchained” and others zero. I’ll split the difference.

Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

BEST ACTRESS
Only two locks and it will be the two women fighting for the grand prize on Oscar night — Jessica Chastain & Jennifer Lawrence. Everyone else is just happy to be nominated. But who? Emmanuelle Riva seems a likely third place for her stunning work in “Amour” and Naomi Watts is a safe bet for her gripping work in “The Impossible.” Most people seem to be leaning Marion Cotillard for “Rust & Bone” for the final spot but predictions are nothing without going out on a limb a little bit and so I predict that the Academy will nominate the youngest lead acting nominee in history Thursday morning and we can all enjoy Seth MacFarlane trying to pronounce Quvenzhane.

Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

BEST ACTOR
I can’t remember the last time that this category was so crowded. Two of the best performances of the last decade — Denis Lavant in “Holy Motors” and Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master” — are likely to be left out on nomination morning. Although no one was predicting Demian Bichir at this point last year. When a category gets this crowded, surprises often happen. Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock. Nothing else would surprise me.

Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
John Hawkes, “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

BEST DIRECTOR
Four locks — Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, and Steven Spielberg. One of those four doesn’t get in and jaws hit the floor. The fifth spot is where it gets fun. Ang Lee got the Directors Guild nod yesterday but DGA often doesn’t go 5-for-5 with Oscar. Quentin Tarantino has a lot of love in the Academy but did they all see the movie in time? Will David O. Russell really be left out for the film that Harvey Weinstein has put the most weight behind this season? Might they go international and nominated Michael Haneke for “Amour”? For some reason, and I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot, I’m thinking that the fact that directors vote for directors impacts here and they recognize the achievement of PTA in much the same way they did Terence Malick last year for “Tree of Life.”

Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “The Master”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Tom Hooper, “Les Misérables”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

BEST PICTURE

Les Misérables Photo credit: Universal

There’s not much left to say, is there? The fun here is going to be on the fringe. Do they go 8, 9, or 10? Last year was 9 and most would agree this has been a stronger one for film, so I’m sticking with that digit. If there’s 10, “Moonrise Kingdom” is the tenth. If not, I think it looks like this with all of the other categories underneath. Check back Thursday morning for a full list, Thursday afternoon for a snubs piece, and tune in to “Chicago Tonight” on WTTW on Thursday night for discussion of the Academy’s choices.

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Lincoln

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Lincoln
A Royal Affair

BEST EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Zero Dark Thirty Photo credit: Sony

BEST MAKEUP
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

BEST SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln

BEST SONG
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Skyfall

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Rabbi’s Cat
Wreck-It Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man
This is Not a Film

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Amour
Beyond the Hills
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Affair

By BRIAN TALLERICO Content Director HollywoodChicago.com [email protected]